Election Day

Before tomorrow dawns and the 2012 presidential campaigns go into full swing I thought it might be time to weigh in on the present political landscape. 

First the easy prediction: Barack Obama will indeed be elected President. How big will the margin be will decided pretty early. If Indiana is close when its polls close then McCain is in for a very short night of remaining a candidate. Personally I think I'm having a hard time seeing Obama winning Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina or Missouri. The problem for McCain is that he has to win every one of those states plus taking Pennsylvania for him to have any chance. The best McCain can hope for without Pennsylvania is a 269-269 tie in which case the House of Representatives would give the election to Obama. This scenario also counts McCain winning New Hampshire, and Nevada as well as all of the above states which is highly unlikely. Far more likely is Obama winning New Hampshire, Nevada and Virginia and cruising to a 291-247 win. Less likely but still possible is more of a blowout with many or all of the swing states going for Obama along with a popular vote of more than 50%. That combined with what will certainly be at least 15 seats in the House and 4 in the Senate will give the new president the first real mandate from the electorate since the Reagan revolution. 

That of course is the segue. Obama is the new Reagan. These are troubled times. We have couple of unpopular wars, who may not be going exactly badly, but show little signs of ever ending. The world economy has found itself in its worst state in decades. The President has proven massively ineffective at dealing with anything and is horribly unpopular at home and even more unpopular around the world. America needs someone that can articulate a populist competent optimism. Shockingly enough it was the Democratic party that ran exactly that campaign. That more than anything else is why they are poised to win big today.